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Path to prosperity

The past few trading days have been great for investors as the market rallied and prices surge after the crash on Monday due to the Fed passing a bill for effectively unlimited QE. 

The SGX has followed the US markets moving up strongly. Today, the SGX opened down as investors probably sought to take some profit from the last 2 days of upticks. Post-lunch the SGX started to narrow its losses as investors were waiting in anticipation of the 2nd Covid-19 Budget announced by Singapore DPM Heng Swee Keat. The announcement was a welcomed one as losses for many stocks narrowed and aviation plays like SIA Engineering and SATS were up 12% and 7% respectively; SIA was trade halted today. 

My current take on the markets is that we are not out of the woods yet as the coronavirus still seems to be spreading and death tolls continue to grow. Until we see a decline in actual number of cases, more recoveries, or a vaccine, things will continue to be uncertain. On the flip side, many of the measures governments around the world have instated have set us up for a quick recovery once all this is over, the question is how soon this will be over. 

Key thoughts on the budget to follow, need some time to digest and think about the impact. 
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Markets round-up
Markets crashed a few earlier in the week as the US failed to pass a bill to alleviate the impact of the coronavirus with Democrats arguing that it supports Wall Street more than Main Street. 

Today the SGX has recovered slightly in the morning although we are seeing signs that this recovery is short-lived as stocks have pared back some of their early morning gains going into the afternoon session. 

Eagle has its wings clipped
This morning Eagle Hospitality Trust requested for a voluntary trading suspension in the light of its strategic review. This was due to the notice of default and acceleration received by the Managers from Bank of America regarding one of its credit facilities. This event of default occurred due to EHT's Master Lessees' non-payment of rent for certain properties. Because of this, BofA has accelerated the entirety of the US$341m loan to be immediately due and owing. 

For investors, this means that the previously declared dividend of US$0.03478 that was due to be paid on 30 Mar 2020 cannot be paid due to certain restrictions against payment of distributions in the abovementioned event. Quoting the SGX announcement 
Accordingly, in light of the above developments, Stapled Securityholders should note and expect that there is no certainty or assurance as to the period of the delay in receipt of the Distribution or that such Distribution will be made at all.
At its last close of US$0.137, the half-yearly dividend payment would have implied an annualized yield of ~50%. Warning signs have been flashing throughout the past few months as substantial shareholders have been selling down their stakes and EHT has also gone through multiple management changes, in particular at their CFO position. While there have been nagging issues, these were exacerbated by the onset of the Covid-19 virus which has effectively destroyed the hospitality sector. Trading at only ~17% of its IPO price, there have to be questions about the due diligence process undertaken by the SGX, listing banks and lawyers. 
1. Were there sufficient checks for interested-party transactions as highlighted by the past few months selldown by substantial shareholders who sold EHT their initial portfolio
2. What was the sponsor's true purpose in listing the Trust
3. Was there sufficient safeguards and education for retail investors who may not have had the time and expertise to go through all clauses in the prospectus
4. Did the due diligence process not raise any red flags regarding the financial viability of the master lessee

While it is impossible to reverse what has happened, it would be interesting to see what measures MAS and SGX put in place to prevent a repeat of the EHT saga. While there have been no indications of fraudulent behaviour unlike the Best World saga, we hope that this serves as a notice to retail investors who only use yield to evaluate stocks. As the saying goes, 'High risk high return, low risk low return', the yield is a function of the risk that the market applies to stocks and investors should only invest within their risk appetite. 


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